Visa Success Probability

Your approval probability, live.

Pick your program and adjust your country, age, funds and travel history. The range below updates as you type — anchored to public IRCC approval-rate trends, not a guarantee.

Pathway & profile

Recommended program Each program has its own base approval rate from public IRCC trends. The recommended program is the one your readiness score ranks highest — switch it to model an alternative.

Country of origin Country drives a meaningful slice of the probability — IRCC refusal rates vary substantially. Age Economic streams reward ages 25-35 most. Family and visitor are less age-sensitive.

Financial capacity

Funds available, in US dollars Six months of clean bank statements is what officers look for. Below the program threshold, this is the single biggest drag on the probability. Your overall readiness score (0–100) From your assessment. If you don't have one yet, complete the free questionnaire first — that's where this number comes from.

Travel history

I have a prior visa refusal (any country) I have visited Canada before (visa-compliant) I have visited the US, UK or Schengen before (visa-compliant) I have family or close ties in Canada

Save my probability with a free assessment

Factor breakdown

Where the probability comes from

Each row is one factor in the model. Positive numbers pull your probability up, negative numbers pull it down. Base rate per program is the public IRCC anchor we start from.

Country of origin

IRCC refusal rates for this country are around the global average.
Age +5 pts

Age is in the prime band that economic streams reward.
Recommended program 88%

Express Entry — base approval rate from public IRCC trends: 88%.
Financial capacity -10 pts

No declared funds. IRCC will question your ability to settle and support yourself.
Travel history

No travel history declared and no prior refusals — neutral for officers, but consider adding any prior visa-compliant trips to the application.
Overall profile readiness 0/100 -7 pts

Your readiness score is early-stage — the application is not yet competitive.

Move your range

Concrete moves ranked by impact. Each one is a real, verifiable change an officer would see in the file.

Strengthen the funds file: six months of clean bank statements totalling at least $14,000, plus a source-of-funds explanation. This typically lifts the range by 8–10 points.
Close the readiness gaps the scoring engine flagged — an official language test result and an ECA of your foreign degree alone usually move the range by 5–10 points.
A short visit to a visa-waiver country with clean re-entry adds a compliance signal officers weigh — even one trip is better than none.

This is a data-driven estimate from public IRCC trends and your profile — not a guarantee. Only a Canadian immigration officer can decide your application.